The Washington Times-Herald

Local News

August 7, 2012

Food prices likely to spike after drought

WASHINGTON — It’ll be business as usual at Grain Processing Corp. in Washington, despite corn yield losses caused by the current drought.

GPC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kent Corporation, Muscatine, Iowa. The company produces corn syrup solids and starches for the food, pharmaceutical and personal care markets; ethyl alcohol for beverage and industrial uses; starches for paper, corrugated cardboard, textiles and wallboard; corn oil; and animal nutrition ingredients. They use roughly 28 million bushels of corn annually, according to Grain Supply Manager Ed Cardinal, who added that a number of factors influence that number, but they do not anticipate buying less corn this year.

“The plant will go on,” Cardinal said. “We’ll just reach out farther to get corn. GPC is committed to serving its customers. ”

Locally, Cardinal said, he expects corn harvest to begin late this month with half the average yield. He said normally yield is about 160 bushels per acre, and this year he’d be happy with 80 or 90 bushels per acre.

Daviess County Extension Ag Educator Scott Monroe said it’s pretty much impossible to come up with an accurate estimate at this point, but yields will be “substantially decreased from normal.” Because rain was so spotty, with some fields getting rain and others a few miles away getting none, and high and low areas in each field affected differently, yields will be irregular.

“I’d say corn harvest as we know it will be done by October 1st,” Cardinal said. “It doesn’t take as long to bring in when you’re only handling half the quantity.”

He said the corn quality is more important than quantity for GPC.

“All we buy is USDA No. 2 corn, as long as it’s approved by the European Union,” he said. “Basically that’s what’s grown in this area.”

The drought’s impact is already affecting the grain market, according to Monroe. Cardinal said corn is currently $8.50 per bushel and probably will continue rising. Those skyrocketing prices probably will have to be passed along to the consumer, he said.

“A drought like this is going to affect economic problems worldwide because we’re the breadbasket of the world,” Cardinal said, explaining that when U.S. corn production drops off it impacts people everywhere. “This is historical. It’s never been seen before. It’s a huge section of the Corn Belt.”

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, at the end of July, drought conditions extended from the Midwest into the Plains states. In southwestern Indiana, the drought was listed as “exceptional.” In most of the Midwest, conditions were rated “extreme,” but some places were merely “severe.”

The USDA recently reported Indiana has a 92-percent deficit of topsoil moisture and 95-percent shortage in the subsoil. The month of July saw only three-tenths of an inch of rain on average in the Hoosier state, which was 10 inches below average for the period April 1 through July 29.

Other than Georgia, which is seeing extreme to exceptional drought conditions in a large part of the state, most states east of Indiana have not been hit as hard by the drought. The northern tier of states, the Northwest and the West Coast also have seen a less droughty situation. But the dry conditions are gradually creeping west. As far west as Nevada, states are looking at severe to extreme moisture shortages.

Cardinal said the heat also has contributed to the problems with the corn crop. Indiana’s daytime temperatures averaged around 103 degrees for an extended period; soil temperature at a 4-inch depth was 91 degrees. Cardinal said the consecutive days of temperatures higher than 100 degrees at a critical time hindered pollination.

“We had everything working against us that could be this year with the corn crop,” he said. “I know some old traders who’ve been in the business 50 years, and they’ve never seen anything like this.

“We’re really feeling for the farmers. It’s really hard on them with the money they have into it, the machinery and their time.”

In the agriculture industry, the heaviest financial burden probably will be on livestock farmers, according to Monroe, who said an estimated 65 percent to 75 percent of farmers have crop insurance, which will help crop farmers somewhat. He said the Extension Service is trying to answer questions as they arise and provide guidance.

“We can’t make it rain,” he said. “The only thing we can do is help folks mitigate things as best we can.”

Consumers likely will see increased prices at the gas pump, as well as the grocery store, according to Cardinal, since ethanol is made from corn and the government mandates a 10-percent ethanol blend.

“We’ll find a way to make it work,” he said. “One thing about this country, we can take a catastrophe and make something good out of it.”

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